AJ Dybantsa is suffering from No. 1 fatigue
The 6-foot-10 swing man headed to Brigham Young deserves to be the number one pick. Frankly, he's just deserved it too long.
Until April 9, 2025, BYU commit AJ Dybantsa had only spent one day ranked lower than first in the last 17 months when he debuted on 247Sports class of 2025 rankings after reclassifying in 2023. Before reclassifying, the top spot is one he’s held since eighth grade, back in 2020.
There’s a good reason for that. Ranging from 6-foot-9 to 6-foot-10 depending on your trust of measurements or photos, Dybantsa has an uncanny scoring skill set that suits him more as a wing than a forward. Despite his size, he gets lower than most defenders four or five inches shorter than him when attacking angles, only reminding you how big he truly is when he explodes upwards for a poster finish or an uncontestable step-back jumper.
Had it not been for the emergence of another superstar prospect in Darryn Peterson, who at least holds a candle to Dybantsa’s top-player candidacy, he’d still be the runaway favorite to go first overall in 2026. However, whether it be fatigue or the attention rewarded to other deserving players like Peterson, Dybantsa has lost his top spot — one he’ll surely regain throughout the coming year.
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2025 NBA Draft Big Board 6.0
The NCAA Tournament has nearly concluded, meaning only the prospects on the best teams are still putting film on the table. While most of the attention is deservedly shown to the games currently playing, the brevity between actions gives way to plenty of time to catch up on the players no longer out there.
When looking at what makes Dybantsa so deserving of the top spot, it’s essential to start with his biggest strength — scoring.
In 40 games with Utah Prep this season, Dybantsa averaged upwards of 26 points per game, going over 40 points several times, including a 43-point explosion over Cameron Boozer and Columbus and a 48-point performance over Peterson and Prolific Prep.
The first thing that stands out in Dybantsa’s on-ball repertoire of tools is his wiggle with the ball in his hands. It would be a stretch to say he has the ball on a string, but, his creativity and confidence in breaking down defenders and getting into his shots is an exhibition of shift and burst.
Dybantsa’s incredibly dangerous inside the arc, where he can get to a shot of any distance or variety. He made nearly 60 percent of his inside-the-arc shots this season, including an over 65 percent clip around the rim on 398 half-court attempts (73 dunk attempts).
His size is for sure an important aspect of Dybantsa’s ability to get to the rim and finish. He has a good amount of off-ball utility in this way, as well, as a dynamite cutter with elite explosion in short space, even offering utility as a lob threat.
One thing that makes Dybantsa special is his strides. Below, Dybantsa gets the switch onto the 6-foot-3 Leroy Kelly IV. Dybantsa sizes up, and explodes, lowering himself to the level of Kelly before slowing down and exploding past him and around the help with a lengthened stride for the smooth layup.
The option to win with speed and footwork rather than raw strength in these mismatches is key, meaning Dybantsa doesn’t need his size to win. He can score on anybody of any size. In the clip below, he does just that against a player who looks even a bit stronger than him.
Dybantsa has begun to turn the unpredictability and length of his strides into a strength in the mid-range. Once a bit of a non-shooter, Dybantsa has started to add extra levels to his scoring arsenal.
He still leans inefficient on these shots, but his ability to create these nonetheless is seemingly natural for it being a more recent addition to his game. His low-to-the-ground handling style maximizes control on his attacks, both of the ball and his body as he gets through the shoulders and chests, hunting for that undeniable feeling of space to pull up and shoot.
Naturally, when you see a wing of Dybantsa’s style hunting shots in the middle, Kevin Durant comes to mind, but stylistically, there’s more reminiscence to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the way he wiggles through diagonals. Here’s an example, where the first left-to-right cross buckles the defender, forcing him to recover before a nasty spin that carries Dybantsa from the elbow to the middle of the free-throw line.
Surprisingly, Dybantsa’s perhaps even more dynamic making these kinds of shots from three. He’s a natural creator with a natural flair for contorting his body into creases, and has taken — and made — some absurd shots from behind the arc.
This past season he shot about 35 percent on off-the-dribble three-pointers on 101 attempts. Step-backs, hang-pulls and everything else is already in Dybantsa’s arsenal, with such comfortability executing any number of moves that makes the results come second.
Dybantsa’s handle has the tendency to not just be knee-buckling for defenders, but seemingly to himself — a testament to his flexibility. Here, the two left-hand dribbles almost sell a hesitation into a left-right cross and a drive, but Dybantsa full stops, dragging his back foot before pulling up for the nasty make.
Dybantsa’s form is very clearly two-motion, with a set point directly at his brow. His release point is naturally high, and he almost leans back on his shots, with his shoulders, knees and feet squared closer to the sideline than the basket on any above-the-break attempt.
These are consistently related to issues with accuracy, even with solid energy transfer on his shot. This is more evident in the way Dybantsa preps for his shot in the catch-and-shoot, and why his accuracy is even lower on catch-and-shoot threes than it is on off-the-dribble attempts. However, as previously said, the comfort in creating Dybantsa displays is beyond encouraging.
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There’s a bit of see-ball-ask-for-ball when Dybantsa’s off the ball. He’s so used to being the most talented, skilled offensive player on the court, that he rightfully deserves a high usage, and at the high school level, the ball whenever he wants.
I worry a bit about how he will adapt to playing off others more, having to earn his buckets through dirty work before the catch, but he clearly has the tools to do so. Dybantsa isn’t by any means a heliocentric playmaker, which will get touched on down the line. However, his tools and feel for space give him tremendous upside as an off-ball scorer.
While not a fully developed initiator for others, Dybantsa isn’t a slouch of a passer, by any means. He’s still learning how to be an effective pick-and-roll ball-handler, scoring at a good-not-great rate of 0.775 points per possession, ranking in the 50th percentile.
Dybantsa isn’t the kind of guy that’s going to spray the rock around the perimeter, find a pocket pass to a slipping roll man or throw a bullet to a cutter. At this point in time, he’s hunting for his own shot, and if it isn’t there, he relocates to the openest man he can find, and oftentimes will look to get the ball back and attack again.
This is a pretty standard Dybantsa passing possession. He gets the screen from Washington commit JJ Mandaquit and feels out the mismatch, attacking the diagonals until the attention he draws on his own is enough to free up BYU commit Xavion Staton under the rim.
Despite some of his shortcomings, Dybantsa still managed to average 3.6 assists per game, with a positive 1.19 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’ll need to continue to grow, but the primacy he commands with his scoring will only encourage him to continue to grow in that regard, sinking or swimming as his opponents get better.
At the high school level, there simply isn’t a desirable matchup for Dybantsa. At the collegiate and NBA levels, that will be the case less and less often. Developing these ancillary skills, and becoming a more reliable cutter and shooter will help, but, Dybantsa’s progress throughout his career thus far is encouraging nonetheless.
Defensively is another former pain point that has quickly turned into something Dybantsa can hang his hat on. Early on, his rotations were lackadaisical and it didn’t feel like his passion or tools exhibited in his scoring were translating, but that’s started to change.
When engaged, Dybantsa can sit down on ball-handlers, cover ground in help and really cause havoc around the rim and in passing lanes. He’s imperfect, and a bit of a gambler in this regard, but the potential is there. At his size, he gives you a bit more positional leverage on that end, as even if he’s the guy you’re looking to hide, you’ll have far more success doing so than you would with a more traditionally guard-sized player.
All things considered, despite being an imperfect player, Dybantsa’s “fall” from consensus number one pick to potential number one pick might not be a product all his own. Two other spectacular prospects in this class in Peterson and Boozer have their own valid candidacy to be the first name called in July 2026, but, by estimation of my own, Dybantsa will be my top player heading into the season.
He dropped 24 the other night.