Behind Adou Thiero's junior jump

The 6'8" forward for Arkansas has flipped his game on its head, and looks all the better for it.

Adou Thiero (photo via Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images)

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Coming into the season, I’ll be the first to admit Arkansas junior Adou Thiero was an afterthought as an NBA prospect for me, and that’s not without reason.

When history looks back on the 2023-24 Kentucky squad, it will be remembered for the first-round loss in the NCAA Tournament to 14-seeded Oakland, creating the moment that was Jack Gohlke. What won’t be remembered is Thiero, which may not be a bad thing.

Thiero averaged just 7.2 points per game and 5.0 rebounds with Kentucky in his sophomore season. He came into the season with high hopes after changing his body over the summer and showing out in exhibitions, but on a talented, but widely inexperienced Wildcats team, he struggled to put his game at the forefront.

After following John Calipari to Arkansas, along with a number of former Kentucky teammates and incoming recruits, it was hard for me to see Thiero separating himself, especially as he’d now see himself as part of a much stronger draft class.

I’ll also be the first to admit, I was wrong.

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BIG BOARD

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Through seven games with the Razorbacks, Thiero has looked like one of the best forwards, if not players, in college basketball. He’s averaged an impressive 19.1 points per game (68.1% true shooting), 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and an SEC-leading 2.9 steals per game. Additionally, he’s shooting 73.3% from inside the arc.

The athleticism has always been there for Thiero, but unlocking it was the key. Already, Thiero is just six dunks shy of his season total of 24 from last season, nearly tripling his attempts per game. The flashiest point of emphasis for this improvement is Thiero’s, and Arkansas’, ability to create opportunity in transition.

Thiero has combined physicality, anticipation and a 7-foot wingspan to be one of the most disruptive off-ball defenders in college basketball this season. Thiero constantly finds his hands and arms in the way of passing ball-handlers, handoffs and errand passes, creating opportunities for thunderous transition slams.

In each of these clips, Thiero’s imposing frame is what stands out the most. At 6-foot-8 and 220 lbs, he has an NBA player’s body at the collegiate level. That body is largely why he’s been able to draw fouls at the rate he has. Through the early season, Thiero holds a 0.671 free-throw attempt rate (FTAr), which is an elite mark. To display just how crazy of a number that is, Joel Embiid, in his MVP season, held a 0.581 FTAr.

Now, it’s beyond unlikely this number will be sustained, as even 0.450 would be considered elite, Thiero’s physicality and physical tools are undeniable. He’s not the best free throw shooter, as evidenced by his 66.7% rate at the line, and the shooting is—offensively at least—the one major area for improvement.

Thiero scores 1.32 points per shot overall, ranking in the 91st percentile nationally. However, when limiting the scope to just jump shots, those numbers drop significantly, sitting at 0.76 points per shot and ranking in the 26th percentile. In the catch-and-shoot, that drops even lower, as Thiero is shooting just 4-of-16 on catch-and-shoot threes to start the season.

Mechanically, the issues are certainly there. His lower and upper body are rigid and stiff and lack cohesivity with one another. His set point is remarkably low, at around his nose, with his forearm perpendicular to the court while his upper arm is pointed 45 degrees at it. This creates a slightly hitch-y release, leading to erratic results, missing wide, short and flat.

On top of that, his shot preparation lacks fluidity, often taking time to set his feet, square his shoulders, and fire. Thiero’s footwork is at least somewhat consistent, showcasing a heavy preference for a left-right step into his shot.

Thiero’s shot is what’s holding him back from some of the grander draft talks. He’s certainly a prospect—I’d even argue he’s a surefire first-round prospect at this point—but failing to showcase shooting as a 6-foot-8 forward can be damning when lottery talks come into play.

That’s not to say nobody has ever developed into a shooter. In terms of similarity, Jonathan Kuminga stands out. Both possess burly frames and hit the athletic lottery genetically, but struggled to shoot in their pre-draft years. With comparable frames, somebody like Isaac Okoro would be the low-end result, with Jonathan Kuminga standing as a potential median outcome.

The outlier development example would be Pascal Siakam, who transformed himself from an energy-and-not-much-else wing into a 40% shooter and dynamic, All-Star caliber creator.

Despite the shot’s inconsistency, Thiero has nevertheless been a breakout star for the Razorbacks with the largest culprit for his improvement being his handle.

At Kentucky, Thiero’s handle limited him greatly. In his limited on-ball reps, he was unable to unlock his athletic gifts with a lagging control of the ball. He was unable to shift primary defenders and couldn’t set up ideal take-off points to get to the rim for easy finishes, which is largely why he’s been so much better at the rim this season.

In a sense, his newfound ability to apply pressure makes up for the lack of shooting. He’s become accustomed to being sagged off and has implemented rampage cuts—a cut where a player starts running as the pass is thrown—allowing him to close these gaps in an instant.

Thiero doesn’t possess a devastating crossover, but his explosiveness alone can be enough to create the advantage he needs. Whether it is a shoulder to the defender’s chest, a spin off a bump to himself or a massive hop to split the defense, Thiero’s quickly developed a bag of tricks to pull from on these rim attacks.

The most enticing about Thiero, a 2004-born prospect, is that, seemingly, he’s just now starting to put it all together. The athletic traits, along with the seemingly still developing skillset and feel for the game, is a combination that has tantalized scouts endlessly since the game of basketball has shifted toward big do-it-all wings.

Thiero may not be that, but he’s certainly shown tremendous growth on the court this season, compounded with the physical growth he showed off the court coming into his second season with Kentucky. He’s added to his body and to his game in the past two years and now looks the part of a legitimate NBA draft prospect.

Of course, there always needs to be necessary hesitation with a sample this small for a player who still expresses flaws, but there’s a lot to like in Thiero’s breakout and a lot that very well could translate to the next level. He has a ways to go, but with the way the trendline is shaping up, it’s hard not to invest in Thiero’s continued growth.

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