Chris Cenac Jr. is toolsy, tricky, undeniably talented
Prepare for Houston's 6-foot-10 five-star to be one of the hardest evaluations of the 2026 NBA Draft cycle, with a skill set that asks, "Is more, less?"
Chris Cenac Jr., for better or worse, isn’t your run-of-the-mill 6-foot-10 big with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, if such a thing exists. Sure, he dunks, catches lobs, blocks shots, and does all the things above the rim you want and expect someone of his frame to do, but beyond that, there’s an intangible, enticing “more” that simultaneously excites and scares.
Your typical Cenac highlight reel consists of two things: everything listed above, and the stuff you’d only expect someone of his size to be doing on a Mitchell Robinson off-season Instagram story. It’s that latter part that’s so tricky.
Cenac has undeniable talent. His measurements are top-of-class, and at Houston, he’ll have ample opportunity to grow within a system, flanked by high-caliber playmakers and shooters to make the most of his tools. But what if the “more” turns out to be less?
Prospects & Concepts 2026 NBA Draft Primer
The 2025 NBA Draft was more than a month ago, and with Summer League now complete, last year’s draft cycle has officially concluded.
For many scouts, the question has plagued pre-collegiate evaluations of Cenac. His excellent size, length, and pop off the floor are inhibited by a love for jumpers, handling, and gambling that just haven’t caught up to the tools yet.
“Raw” is a term I’ve begun to stray away from in my evaluations, because of the many pit-traps evaluators fall into when assessing the term for a player. All too often, the term has more to do with factors outside of the player’s game than inside. However, if anyone fit the bill in the 2025 five-star class, it would be Cenac.
A quick statistical scan of Cenac’s performance as a senior at Link Academy is telling. A true shooting percentage lower than 55 percent, an assist-to-turnover rate below 0.5, and well over twice the number of personal fouls as blocks hangs around his natural talent like a stench he hasn’t yet been able to shake.
The common point of concern for a player with this description is the jumper, though, which might be one of the more enticing aspects of Cenac’s game.
By no means is Cenac’s shot perfect, but it’s one he’s unafraid to get up, and it resulted in him knocking down over 37 percent of his threes this past season. It’s a wide-based shot, but the energy transfer is smooth. As the ball travels down, he bends his knees, going up into his jump as the ball carries into its set point. He prefers to get into this with a hop, which allows him to attack off either foot if a closeout comes hard.
On catch-and-shoot looks, where over 90 percent of his three-point attempts came from, his efficiency climbed all the way up to 40 percent. Off the dribble, he’s a tad more ambitious and a tad less efficient.
At his best, Cenac looks like a Nowitzki clone, turning crossovers into fade-aways that look absurd at his size. At his worst, it’s rushed, early-clock clanks off the rim that make you ask, “Does he realize he’s massive?”
Take the example below. Cenac has the size advantage, and rather than backing down his man, taking him closer to the rim, he faces up and drives outward, almost to the free-throw line, having created no space in the process before throwing up an ill-advised shot.
The decision-making seen above is a recurring issue in other areas of Cenac’s game. Harkening back to the dismal turnover ratio he held last season, it’s become abundantly clear Cenac is better suited for the rim-running, play-finishing role.
Scoring talent is something people tend to look at in too sealed a vacuum. Being able to make a shot is great, but slow decisions kill players at high levels. Though their positions differ, Cam Thomas is still a restricted free agent because of this.
With big-man size, Cenac won’t be defaulted to playing on the ball the same way Thomas is, and has provided impact on the glass at all his stops. However, to unlock his full potential as a scorer and recipient of on-ball actions, Cenac will have to make major strides as a decision-maker.
His best strength as a passer is his outlet passing. He can grab a board or get on the floor, quickly turn his head up the court, and hit a streaking teammate for an easy shot under the rim. In the half-court, his best reads come under the rim, finding cutters when he draws the low-man just a little too high.
For the potential he’s shown in patches, Cenac is still heavily plagued by turnovers. It’s a product of possessing a lagging handle and a lackluster spatial awareness as a creator. Sometimes, the ball just hops out of his hands; other times, it’s senselessly dribbling into double teams for missable cough-ups.
Feel is certainly something that can be developed, and I expect it to under Houston coach Kelvin Sampson. Though, historically, it’s a skill that takes a tad longer than others.
The more immediate issue I’d like to see improved is touch around the rim. While Cenac’s shot from the perimeter is fine in the catch-and-shoot, finishing with finesse is something Cenac has struggled with. He has the hops, though, not always the strength to power to get up, over, and through defenders at the rim. This lack of power can also get him knocked off his spot when trying to scoop or hook shots in.
A lack of around-the-rim versatility also inhibits Cenac. His footwork is unrefined, and he lacks a couple of key shots bigs tend to rely on — hooks and floaters.
Cenac went just 3-of-11 on hooks and floaters with Link Academy, while shooting just 40 percent on layups in the half-court. A big hole in his game.
Cenac’s upside is evident. He’s one of the more physically tantalizing talents in the 2025 five-star class and is in the perfect situation to grow tremendously under a coach with a winning, no-nonsense track record like Kelvin Sampson at Houston.
The worry is, it might take more than a year.
Between issues with handle, footwork, and processing, Cenac is far from a complete piece. And as NIL continues to coax players back to the programs they used to go one-and-done with, I wouldn’t be surprised if this time next year we were seeing him back at practice with Houston.