Jalen Johnson is bound to breakout

The Hawks have one of the most exciting, young bench units in the league, but no other player in that group looks as ready to take off as Jalen Johnson.

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One of the most fun parts about a new season’s approach is attempting, and often failing, to predict the annual breakout candidates. Some players take incredible scoring leaps in new situations, others find an irreplaceable role on the defensive end and some find an opportunity to show what they always had with tweaks to the roster around them.

When John Collins, the long-time starting power forward for the Hawks, was practically dumped onto the Jazz back in July, the obvious question was “who’s going to fill in for the Hawks as their fifth starter?”

As of right now, the penciled-in starters at either forward spot are De’Andre Hunter, the Hawks former fourth overall pick, and Saddiq Bey, a recent addition at last season’s trade deadline. However, it’s my opinion that the long-, and maybe even short-term option for the Hawks will end up being their third year forward out of Duke, Jalen Johnson.

The Hawks are filled to the brim with young talent. All but seven players on their roster are 25 years old or under, with Jalen himself not turning 22 until over a month into his third season. Although the statistical output for Johnson hasn’t matched the potential just yet, only playing 14.9 minutes per game in year two, with a less crowded front court, he’s in prime position to showcase what he can do when given the opportunity.

Johnson’s calling card thus far has been his athleticism. He’s an incredible physical specimen at 6’9” and 220 lbs with a strong frame complimented by broad shoulders and a plus wingspan. Additionally, Johnson can jump out of the gym. He’s a routine high-flyer when you turn on his film, skying for dunks and blocks.

Johnson can also slide his feet on the defensive end. When Dejounte Murray was off the court, Johnson was the go-to guy for the Hawks when it came to defending their opponent’s primary ball handler. He uses his length and quickness to force changes of direction and eat up his matchup’s space. In an expanded role next season, he could really cause havoc on the defensive end, as a switch-everything forward/big that the Hawks really haven’t had solidified in their rotation since Al Horford.

The one area he could still stand to grow is flexibility. While his switchability is a virtue, being able to stay attached to a ball handler through screens could stand to improve.In the Hawks’ first round matchup against the Celtics, Boston routinely went to the pick ‘n’ roll against Johnson, who was primarily tasked with guarding Malcolm Brogdon, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. Being able to get low and strong or tall and skinny at a moment’s notice is a skill that many of the NBA’s best on-ball defenders have mastered when guarding the pick ‘n’ roll.

The Hawks were also just a better team on the defensive end with Johnson on the court. With Johnson off the court, the Hawks had a defensive rating of 117.6 which would sit at 26th in the league (2.8 points under league average). With Johnson on the court, that number dropped to 114.6, good for 19th in the league (0.2 points over league average). Add the Hawks 22-year-old center, Onyeka Okongwu, to the line up alongside Johnson, and that number drops once again to 113.0, which evens out to 10th in the entire league (1.8 points over league average).

I’d be overstepping to say that he’s a future All-Defensive player based on what he’s shown thus far. The versatility he’s showcased in flashes though, is evident. Throughout the 2022-23 season, he guarded everybody from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Jayson Tatum to Russell Westbrook; forcing bad shots and turnovers on all of them when they went at him.

Offensively, Johnson’s role is slightly less defined and the product of that was a chance to see a little bit of everything in his game last season. The biggest weakness in his game at this point is the jump shot. It’s a stiff motion with clunky energy transfer from top to bottom and the results have reflected that. In 100 career games (regular season and postseason), Johnson is just 28.6% from three on 129 attempts.

Despite this, Johnson has found avenues to impact on the offensive side of the ball. Firstly, he’s a relatively productive offensive rebounder for a non-center, recording 1.8 per 75 possessions. He’s excellent at sneaking in while defender’s backs are turned to him, getting a head of steam and skying for the board.

Despite lacking touch on his jumper, he’s a pretty solid finisher around the rim, shooting 63.9% on all shots at the basket. Of course, he’s also adept at finishing with power, soaring for rim-rattling dunks. He lacks the flexibility to slither through contact, but the strength (core, upper body and lower body) and verticality allows him to create contact and hang in the air through it.

As far as getting to these shots goes, Jalen gets them in a variety of ways, most of which coming off the ball. He’s a force in transition at times, showcased solid feel as a roll man and had great timing on his cuts. Due to his lack of gravity on the perimeter, he's often left open on the perimeter with his man’s attention elsewhere.

His speed and timing on these exploits the defense for not respecting him on the perimeter, and even if a help defender sees him coming he’s adept at getting them in the air and finding a dump-off to the big man.

The main points of growth to track for Jalen are going to come from his slashing and playmaking. With very few signs pointing to him ever really holding value as an outside shooter besides his willingness to take open shots, putting pressure on the rim and finding teammates is going to be where he can add offensive value.

For a forward of Jalen’s size, his first step is lightning as we’ve seen in his ability to attack closeouts. Developing a couple off-the-dribble counters and being able to create an occasional play as an initiator will turn him from a glue piece to a legitimate offensive option. He’ll likely never be a first, second, or even third option but being potent with the little things and being an offensive pressure valve for your teammates is just as important, if not more important, than averaging 20 points per game.

As a slasher, the majority of Johnson’s paint touches came off of spot-up drives. He’s more than willing to take advantage of a defender over-helping or closing out too hard. He’s even thrown in an occasional euro- or hop-step to maneuver around defenders.

Turning these flashes into something real and then meshing them with passing is what’s going to allow Johnson to take the next step. As a playmaker he’s at his best in the middle of the floor, finding his bigs in the dunker spot or getting the ball to shooters when help rotates too far.

He’s legitimately flashed every pass in the book. Dump-offs to bigs, skips off of penetration, alley-oops, outlet passes, the occasional no-look pass and so much more. Growing into his role and exceeding it will give him the opportunity to be much more of a playmaker in Atlanta’s offense, which would not just be fun, but effective.

Jalen also just isn’t turnover prone, which is a valuable and under discussed trait for an off-ball player. His handle is solid, but he’s never going to try and do too much with it, and rarely finds himself in situations where he’s gotten himself in too deep. A sneaky way in which playmakers unlock their passing is through avoiding these situations.

Currently as a passer, Jalen’s best trait is how good he is at making the initial pass in an offensive set, or keeping the ball flowing when it hits his hands. He’s adept at seeing the pass before he can throw it and even though he’s not making Steve Nash-esque plays, these types of passes are conducive to easy buckets.

While a potential Jalen Johnson breakout might not be the traditional type of leap: jumping an absurd about in points per game, averaging a double-double or becoming a legitimate superstar, I still believe his leap is imminent, and the type that could change this Hawks team.

First and foremost, his defensive versatility is exceeded only by his frontcourt-mate, Onyeka Okongwu. Jalen provides legitimate defensive value to the Hawks in a role that the team just doesn’t have outside of him — a big wing/forwards who you can comfortably put on the opposing team’s best wing/forward, and feel fine with the results. Alongside that, he creates turnovers, and secures possessions on the glass.

Offensively is where we still have yet to find out just what his role is. Truthfully, he’s still just a rung above being a non-shooter entirely, but his ability to set up a drive off of jabs and pump-fakes, and make a play at the rim for himself or his teammates is enticing to say the least. He’s a force in transition as well, and does all the little things in the half-court to help an offense function.

Overall, I’m comfortable saying that out of all the Hawks’ young bench pieces, Jalen Johnson has the best chance to carve out the biggest role among them, assuming the core roster stays the same. Becoming the team’s starting four at some point in the season seems like the most likely outcome to me, but becoming much more is where the excitement lies.