Reed Sheppard and the flawed concept of "stat scouting"
Reed Sheppard has a statistical profile like no other and has garnered a potential top-three selection in large part because of his numbers. But is he the same player when considering all factors?
Just under a year ago, Reed Sheppard entered his first and only college basketball season as the fifth-ranked member in a 10-player Kentucky recruiting class. Now, he sits as a potential top-three pick in the NBA draft this week after winning NABC Freshman of the Year, an award previously held by Brandon Miller, Jabari Smith Jr. and Cade Cunningham.
It’s easy to see the draws with Sheppard on the surface, as many outlier statistics pop off the screen when looking down his sheet. Sheppard shot a blistering 52.1% from three, ranked top-ten in the NCAA in steals per game (2.5) and box plus-minus (10.9), and jumped out of the gym at the NBA Draft Combine with a 42.0” vertical leap.
However, the draws, while likely outweighed, are evident as well. Sheppard is small for a modern guard prospect at 6’3” with a 6’3.25” wingspan. Offensively, he also wasn’t utilized as much as one might expect from a top prospect with an 18.7% usage rate and didn’t get to the rim very often with only 39 makes at the cup this past season.
This piece is not meant to tear down Sheppard and shouldn’t be taken as such. I believe Sheppard to be a lottery-caliber pick, which is not a slight. However, I do have criticism in the arguments that Sheppard’s largest supporters make, which I will break down, while also giving reason to be more cautious when approaching Sheppard, especially as a top-three pick.
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The largest issue in how Sheppard is discussed as a top-three prospect in this year’s class comes from the over-reliance on certain aspects of his statistical profile than others. The website Barttorvik.com is often used for its ability to curate easy queries to find similarities between prospects across its database.
Sheppard has been one of the most common names used in these queries across X’s (formerly known as Twitter) draft community. The stats are eye-popping with him, as there’s rarely been a bad NBA player with Sheppard’s profile advanced statistical outline. A simple query like the one below looks like this…
Drafted in the lottery
Class: Freshman
Box Plus-Minus ≥ 10.0
It works best to get this query out of the way first, so I can cement one thing: I don’t think Sheppard is going to be a bad player. In fact, I am confident he’ll be very good in the NBA; however, I wouldn’t take him in the top three-to-five in the draft, because I don’t think his statistics tell the whole story.
However, the chart above is a pretty broad net to cast, given all the names and archetypes of prospects that match the query. If we filtered to fit Sheppard’s statistical profile more specifically, an optimistic query might look like this…
Drafted
Class: Freshman
Box Plus-Minus ≥ 10.0
Block Percentage ≥ 1.5%
Steal Percentage ≥ 2.5%
Three-Point Percentage ≥ 40.0%
Whereas a more pessimistic one would look something like this…
Drafted
Class: Freshman
Height ≤ 6’3”
Usage ≤ 20.0%
Free Throw Rate ≤ 25.0%
Rim Makes ≤ 40
Side Note: I also like this Sheppard query from @heisnotahooper on X.
The clear issue with both of these lies in their simplicity, and that’s on purpose. The optimistic one chooses to drop concerns related to size and usage, while the pessimistic viewpoint doesn’t look at Sheppard’s stellar shooting and defensive production. In the middle of this Venn diagram sits Sheppard’s playmaking, where he is an excellent table-setter.
However, if there is one thing that I want to establish about myself, it’s that while I value statistics, I am not a stat-sheet scout, and I don’t think that you should be either. So, we’ll be diving into all aspects of Sheppard’s game, good and bad; film and statistics.
Firstly, let’s address the shooting, as it is the most clear-cut positive skill Sheppard possesses. While 52.1% from three isn’t sustainable, and Sheppard’s 4.4 three-point attempts per game aren’t mind-blowing by any stretch, Sheppard is one of the best shooters, if not the best, in the 2024 class.
Sheppard shoots it well in every setting, with Synergy Sports logging him at around or above 50.0% in just about every setting. The one issue one might take with calling Sheppard the class’s top shooter comes in his shot volume and versatility, with “tough” shots making up a small portion of his profile.
While Sheppard is proficient in all settings, 109 of his 146 three-point attempts came in the catch-and-shoot, with 100 of his total attempts coming in spot-up or transition scenarios. It’s hardly a major critique of Sheppard’s, but one the pessimists we’re painting would try to hit on.
Sheppard’s other standout skill on the offensive end is his passing. He sees the court like a legitimate point guard, a product of it being the position he’s played most of his life. In the stacked Kentucky guard room, he played more of an off-guard role, which is part of the reason his usage sat at a meager 18.0% (via sports-reference.com).
Sheppard’s passing is genuinely great, with the ability and creativity to really wow viewers with his vision. Sticking to statistics, his 1.34 assist-to-usage rate (AST/USG) is one of the best in the class, and is comparable to someone like Trae Young, although Young’s usage stood at an unfathomable 37.1%.
Regardless, AST/USG is one of the better stats to look at if you’re trying to find someone who is a genuinely selfless playmaker who allows the ball to flow through their hands. Usage on its own is not a perfect stat as the equation doesn’t factor in assists, so players like Sheppard, or even Tyrese Haliburton or Lonzo Ball in college, suffer from being low-turnover players who like to set up their teammates.
Now, Reed hardly had the ball in his hands as often as those two. Ball was constantly leading the Bruins out in transition, ranking in the 96th percentile nationally in the percentage of his possessions on the break. Haliburton, a two-year player at Iowa State, was one of the nation’s leading pick-and-roll ball handlers, whereas Sheppard played out of spot-ups more often.
Sheppard, while far from turnover-prone, is additionally hampered by his handle and close-quarters explosion. He has solid control of the ball but doesn’t have the confidence to dribble into a collapsing space and maintain his handle, something all the best playmakers are adept at, even if it will lead to a turnover ever so often.
Athletically, while Sheppard boasts an elite vertical and great lateral quickness, he isn’t built as a slasher or a dynamic handler. His strides are relatively short and his posture is somewhat stagnant at times, making it hard for him to create the shin angles necessary to attack defenders with speed around the corner or a bump to create space.
Arya Chawla on X provides a thorough breakdown of Sheppard, specifically as a ball-handling prospect. As he states, small guards’ biggest advantages are their inherent quickness and low center of gravity allowing them to get around bigger defenders. At this point, Sheppard lacks most of that, which is why he finished the season with just 37 attempts at the rim in the half-court, hitting on just 54.1% of them.
Will NBA spacing open up driving lanes for Sheppard? Yes! Does he have the handling craft, speed or size to take advantage of them at the degree other smaller guards can? Not currently.
So, offensively, how does Sheppard project overall?
Out of the gates, he has the shooting and passing necessary to be a great complementary guard, likely finding a home in faster-paced teams that aren’t afraid to run small-ball with Sheppard as a de-facto small wing. In the NBA, shooting gets you in the door, and Sheppard’s other skills alongside elite off-ball shooting and room to grow as a handler will help him see the floor early.
Down the line, there’s potential to see major improvements from Sheppard as a handler and playmaker. Becoming more flexible to better leverage his lesser size and finding counters off-the-dribble that fit his game, and the advantages he’s able to create through his passing and shooting.
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Defensively, there are far fewer issues with Sheppard.
His size is the big one, with a relatively neutral wingspan at 6’3.25” being disadvantageous to keeping defenders contained in front of him with his arms out, getting out in passing lanes or helping around the nail, but Reed makes up for it in many facets.
Some players seemingly have eyes all around their head as passers, seemingly knowledgeable of everything going on around them. In Sheppard’s case, those eyes are more of a sixth sense, and they come on the defensive end, acting passive off-ball until whoever has the ball takes their attention off of them, swooping in to swat their shot or poke it away.
The only comparable first-round pick since 2008 in terms of defensive production is Marcus Smart with Oklahoma State with a career steal percentage of 5.2% and a career block percentage of 2.1%.
Sheppard’s activity is a reflection of these elite numbers. Even when beaten off the dribble by an initial move, he has the wherewithal to stay in the play and recover or notice where his teammates have shifted and rotate accordingly.
The reigning NBA Champion Boston Celtics crafted arguably the greatest defensive team of the last decade around two guards and their ability to defend at the point of attack and cover ground without getting out of the play.
Granted, Jrue Holiday stands 6’4” with a 6’7” wingspan and Derrick White is half an inch longer at the same height, but Sheppard fits their mold as well as any prospect in recent memory. Not every team is Boston, but both Holiday and White would be valuable regardless of the setting, and there’s a chance that Sheppard could be that kind of player defensively, on top of his offensive talents.
While I don’t find Sheppard to be the player most see him as, in the areas where he is at his best (shooting, point-of-attack defense) he is arguably the best in the 2024 draft class in those areas. The numbers that would see him penciled in as a potential All-Star are flawed, and require more context than they provide at face value, failing to encapsulate his current shortcomings as a player, but that’s far from the whole story either.
Sheppard is a great player and absolutely could be one of the best players in this draft, but it won’t be because of the numbers, and if it does happen, it won’t be because of the exact player he is today.