Signal Calling: Narratives surrounding Cooper Flagg are underbaked
There's a growing opinion that Cooper Flagg shouldn't be the top pick, largely based on surface numbers. It is a clear-as-day scouting fallacy.
Welcome to “Signal Calling,” the brand new, bi-weekly column segment from Logan Adams on Prospects & Concepts. The segment will feature quicker-hitting, free-to-read pieces surrounding college basketball, the NBA Draft and everything in between. Typical “Signal Calling” columns will be between 700-1,000 words.
There’s a growing narrative in NBA Draft circles online that Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the penciled-in top prospect in 2025, has been disappointing. This assertion lacks context and is far too reactionary, and I believe it shouldn’t hold any weight in the discussion surrounding Flagg’s No. 1 candidacy.
There is a factor working in conjunction with this narrative that deserves recognition: Rutgers’ Dylan Harper is just a superstar. The 6-foot-6 guard is fourth in the NCAA in points per game while looking like one of the 2025 class’s best playmakers. If not outclassing them further, I’m comfortable saying he’s about a tier-and-a-half over any 2024 guys. Flagg has just looked that good.
The averages are modest for a prospect with his hype — 16.3 points per game (10th in ACC) on 50.5% true shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.7 stocks (steals and blocks) — but the film is far from it, especially paired with context from prior years.
To understand why what Flagg is doing is so cool, it’s important to understand what he did for Montverde en route to a 33-0 season, and with Maine United 16U.
Largely, Flagg’s role with Montverde was that of a Swiss army knife. He did everything but had the edge of an absurd talent difference on his side, which allowed him to stay largely in his comfort zone. He cut for dunks, drove on spot-ups, made the connective reads and, most of all, dominated as a versatile force defensively. He was still a superstar, just one with the versatility to blend in if he wanted or needed to.
Just watch his defense on arguably the world’s current best prospect, AJ Dybantsa.
In Nike EYBL U16 play with Maine United, he got to showcase what he can do in a self-centric offense. In 24 games, he averaged 26.5 points per game on 62.1% true shooting, 11.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists and blocks. He was a man-child amongst boys. His stock production created ample opportunities to score in transition and the attention he drew in the half-court made for seemingly unlimited creases to attack.
BIG BOARD
The primary critique of Flagg, still, which was more of a suggestion of caution given his standing as the surefire best prospect in the world at the time, was his lack of offensive primacy. His shooting was a potential knock without elite volume and a weird form and, most importantly, he never really got to handle in the pick-and-roll.
That’s changed with Duke, and it’s the most necessary context to explain why Flagg might be seen as underwhelming to some this year and exceeding expectations by others like me. While Flagg’s seen a slight drop-off in points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler (including passes), his usage in such possessions has tripled.
This is almost a completely unforeseen development. Players don’t typically just jump into high volumes in play types they’re not accustomed to, and rarely will you see that player have a less-than-substantial drop off in efficiency attempting to fit their new mold.
Flagg hasn’t had those same struggles, all while still being incredible in his comfort zone. His 2.7 stocks per game is a marker of his defensive activity, but his play is otherworldly at times with his ability to eat space while making precise rotations and rarely fouling.
His overall efficiency, which has fallen more substantially from its 60%+ true-shooting days, stands as a marker of the new role, not a lack of ability. Additionally, Flagg has done work to change his shot, which, with Montverde, was a clunky, high-arching shot that lacked game-speed dynamicism.
Now, with Duke, we see a quicker and snappier release further out from his body, creating a more reasonably arching path (note the cut following the offensive board, plus I love Khaman Maluach).
Harkening back to the pick-and-roll production, it looks excellent. There are two ways in which he’s found impact in the early stages of this primacy integration: attacking mismatches and making plays for teammates with limited dribbles.
In the former, Flagg routinely handles the inverted pick-and-roll with Duke’s many talented guards as the screener — they love using a ghost-screen with Kon Knueppel to free up the strong side for Flagg to attack. In the latter, he can make quick decisions with a bigger roll man, utilizing limited dribbles to get to the needed spots.
There are definitely more places to go for Flagg in this experimentation, but in its early stages, that’s exactly what it is — experimentation. We, as scouts, are in the same space as Flagg, seeing what he can do and figuring out what works and what doesn’t in real-time. The handle will (likely) improve, as will the shot, and he’ll be able to threaten defenses in more ways, but the early returns have been nothing short of promising.
I’ve already stated it, but I’m firmly in the camp that Cooper Flagg has done anything but disappoint me in his early season at Duke. The things he did well coming in — cutting, play-finishing, and being a general game-wrecker on defense — he’s continued to do well. It’s all about fitting those pieces around the primacy aspect, which he’s been experimenting with throughout the season thus far.
There’s a lot of stuff to like in these early stages of development, but, on the surface, it has led to the budding of underbaked narratives. Flagg is the clear No. 1 pick, at least in my eyes, and the early season has done nothing but confirm it.