What makes Taylor Hendricks a top-10 pick
The UCF forward has an intriguing set of skills that will allow him to provide impact in the NBA from day one.
The NBA is a league that is in constant flux. Talent is improving at exponential rates, especially on the offensive end, and coaches are doing their best to scheme their way into matching that on the defensive side of the ball.
Spacing continues to push the dimensions of the court to its absolute limit, allowing surgical playmakers and huge athletes to dominate in the league’s favorite form of offense: the pick ‘n’ roll. The immense spacing of the court limits what help defenders can do, and one defensive miscommunication or mistake can mean instant points for an opposing offense.
If a defending big drops too low in the pick ‘n’ roll, it’s an easy pull-up or floater for the guard. If they play too high, they get beat by the roll man, or just get blown by. If the defending guard goes under the screen, they’re conceding a pull-up from deep. If they go over, they leave their big in a two-on-one situation. The game is simply designed for the offense to win, in theory. As offense pushes the limits of what’s possible, a lose-lose dynamic is pushed onto defenses. However, maybe that’s not the case.
As offensive archetypes continue to evolve and shift, so have defensive archetypes. Arguably the most important of these such archetypes is what I like to call the “free safety four.” It’s not a new archetype necessarily, with superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis, among others, playing this role throughout their careers, but it’s one that’s becoming all the more popular as ground coverage is becoming a huge emphasis for defenses.
To establish what a “free safety four” is, we have to understand what a free safety is. In American football, you’ll rarely see a free safety playing in man coverage. Their role on a defense is to provide coverage over the top, bringing help at the point of the catch to corners and linebackers. That concept of role is very similar to what we see with this archetype of player on the basketball court.
These “free safety fours” ideally can move their feet on the perimeter, as well as guard multiple positions above and below their size; but they provide the majority of their impact with help defense, having the ability to shift their position down-low at a moment’s notice, providing additional help to the primary rim protector.
Amongst the new generation of players, the likes of Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been the primary vessel for the importance of this archetype. Both are a fleet-footed seven-feet tall, and provide their impact with their combination of length and quickness — both in settings where they’re guarding on the perimeter, or their ability to rotate or recover at a moment’s notice.
Enter: Taylor Hendricks
From pre-season to now, the UCF freshman has been one of the draft’s biggest risers. Starting as a four-star recruit who was barely a top-60 player in his class based on ESPN's evaluation, Hendricks has surged with the Knights and become one of 2023’s most noteworthy prospects.
Now a consensus lottery prospect on the vast majority of mainstream boards, the 6’9”, 210-pound forward has made a name for himself as a versatile offensive and defensive piece who can fill several roles; however, the one I see himself filling the best — perhaps the best out of any prospect in this year’s class — is the aforementioned “free safety four” style of play.
He’s a bit smaller than most of the players I listed off previously, being closer in size to players like Jaden McDaniels and Trey Murphy III than more traditionally-sized big men like Mobley and Jackson Jr., but Hendricks has more than enough ways to make up for this gap in size.
One of Hendricks’ biggest weapons defensively is his vertical pop. There’s no official number for his vertical, but some of his highlight blocks see him effortlessly getting to the top of the square with extreme quickness and minimal load-up, like he does here:
This ability to get quickly off the floor, beating the offensive player vertically, and swallowing their shot at its peak is an ability common amongst elite rim protectors. This athletic trait becomes even more important for players in Hendricks’ role, who utilize quick rotations and a slight aspect of surprise to get to an opponent’s shot before they have time to adjust and react.
There’s no official measurement for Hendricks’ wingspan, but it’s more than likely a good bit upwards of seven-feet. This combination of vertical pop and length allows him to play much far bigger than 6’9” under the rim.
He positions himself extremely well defensively, allowing him to use his length to wipe away multiple of the offense’s options at once, rotating and reacting when needed. He probes off-ball, watching the ball-handler, while staying present of everything going on around him.
With his expertise in positioning, he can limit the amount of ground he needs to cover before committing to whatever action the offense chooses. He closes space with lightning speed, and is able to swallow shots at the rim, or close out on shooters with excellent technique.
One of the other microskills Taylor has mastered as a rim protector is his ability to track shots with his eyes and hands while maintaining verticality. This ability to match the ball’s course without bringing the arms down makes it nearly impossible for opponents with lesser physical tools to get a shot up or around Hendricks without upping the degree of difficulty on their shot to the extremes.
Here, Hendricks is out defending in transition after a steal in the passing lane. He’s able to catch up to the offensive player, showcasing his great speed; loading up, and as soon as he’s right between his opponent and the basket, he jumps, matching the path of the ball, shifting his arm angle to the right as the offensive player brings the ball down. The result is an awesome rejection.
Hendricks also has capability defending on the perimeter, using that foot speed and reaction time to beat offensive players to their spot, and using his length and athleticism to contest well, forcing a difficult shot.
I love this defensive possession from Taylor, even though the ultimate result is a foul. Like he did pretty much during the entire game vs UNC Asheville, Hendricks starts the possession on their best player, Drew Pember. He does a great job staying attached, as Pember is known to let it fly from three, while continuing to bounce, move his feet, keep his hands up, and swivel his head to survey the court.
As Pember comes up, Hendricks swipes at the ball, which could end up being a steal, but when it’s not, he re-commits to Pember, shading him as he draws one of UCF’s guards down low, then brings help on the ball as soon as he sees the pick-up, denying the entry pass on a huge mismatch in the post. It’s now Hendricks’ job to switch onto the guard on the perimeter as he receives the pass, which he steps out to confidently, doing well to wall off the initial move before getting caught in the air with a pump fake.
Obviously, a foul is not the ideal outcome, but the foot speed, motor, and defensive awareness and positioning were on full display on this possession.
Below is another clip of him switching onto a perimeter player, this time, Houston guard Jamal Shead; one of the best guards in the All-American Conference. At times it almost feels like Hendricks’ surprises guards with his length, crouching like a cat before exploding and stretching for the contest, jumping a little early here to catch Shead off guard on the step-back jumper.
Overall, Taylor Hendricks’ defensive skill set projects him as somebody who’s going to have extremely high value in the league, both from the standpoint of rim protection and versatility. It’s hard to find a weakness in his game on that end, to the point where you’d be nitpicking to say there’s a way to expose him entirely.
He fills the role of “free safety four” perfectly, and that alone would put him in lottery contention for me, as the role becomes more and more important season-to-season. His ability to guard in space, closing distance in an instant, and perfectly marking the ball with his hands.
However, while his defense is special on it’s own, Taylor Hendricks is a two-way player through and through, and a modern big on both ends. The skills he possesses offensively only add to his ability to play at the small-ball five or power forward position, despite not being the biggest player in his mold. The highlights are the quick-trigger threes and high-flying dunks, but let’s dive into Hendricks’ offense in detail.
Offensively, Hendricks fits the mold of a modern-day four, and while the star upside defensively isn’t there to the same degree offensively, his skill set would help just about any of the league’s 30 teams.
His calling card is his perimeter shooting. He’s incredibly fluid and confident firing from range, and while the footwork and upper body portion of his mechanics can be a bit clunky at times, the consistency is impossible to deny. Hendricks was UCF’s leading scorer (15.1 points per game) and one of the team’s most prolific deep range marksmen (4.6 three point attempts per game), hitting on 39.4% of all of his threes, including 40.9% on all catch-and-shoot threes (42.1% on open catch-and-shoot threes).
This shooting profile presents Hendricks as an extremely efficient and relatively high volume threat from deep, which is what teams looking to draft him will be hoping to get from him from day one. He’s got a quick trigger, and while a vast majority of his shots come from spot-ups, he’s shown flashes shooting off the dribble and off of movement.
In the clip above, Hendricks does a great job showcasing that quick trigger on his shot. First possession of the game, and he’s already in rhythm, screening for teammates, waiting for penetration, then relocating onto the three-point line for the quick catch-and-shoot three.
A lot of his attempts and makes come in these types of settings where he’s being run as a screener, or simply waiting down in the paint for penetration, then running to the three-point line to rise and fire before his man can decommit from helping on the drive.
This type of shooting gravity, if he’s given enough volume in the league, will help free up space for his teammates to get good looks at the rim. However, Hendricks isn’t a one-trick pony offensively. He’s a versatile athlete, and a smart cutter who finishes above the rim, and has the potential to be a dominant roll man.
On-ball, the flashes are limited, and so is the handle at this point, but he excels at attacking closeouts, using his shooting as a method to create his offense past that.
This is a picture-perfect example of his ability to use his shooting to attack closeouts. He comes up top to set a screen, which is denied by his guard, who swings the ball back to Hendricks, who is hanging around the perimeter. Taylor throws a pump-fake, forcing the defender to jump, and gets down hill with a hop step, showing off his tremendous vertical on the finish.
Now, Taylor’s still flawed as an on-ball creator. He doesn’t change speeds or heights very well, generally struggling to create space if he’s not playing off of a pre-made advantage. The flashes though, as previously mentioned, are something to monitor.
The likelihood Taylor Hendricks ever becomes a consistent on-ball creator is slim, but there are certain shots on the court that he has a knack for; one being his mid-range pull-up.
Underutilized for him, but something he flashed in his role, Taylor’s shooting and length lent into him being able to get to this shot consistently when he needed to. Here, he catches in the corner, and allows the defense a second to get set before driving into their chest, and rising up with balance at the elbow.
While the area of the court between the three-point arc and the paint has lost a lot of value as a go-to shot, it can still be a great shot when the defense is set on taking away the more efficient shots.
If Hendricks can consistently get to this shot when he’s getting run off of the line, it’ll add instant points to his total. His shot, as we’ve been over, is great, and he has the touch to knock down these types of looks consistently, even if he didn’t convert on them as often as we’d like in his very small diet of mid range shots.
Regardless of whether there is star offensive upside or not, I would still absolutely make the case that Hendricks is deserving of being a top ten pick come June, and that’s largely due to the increasing prevalence of the role he’s most likely to play at the highest level.
His skillset makes him one of the most versatile players in this class, especially on the defensive end, where he fits the mold of a “free safety four,” a role that we’ve established is becoming more and more important in the NBA as offenses continue to push the limits of what’s possible. He’s one of this class’s best rim protectors, possessing a number of micro-skills and traits that will allow him to translate without much adjustment. Offensively, the shooting will garner him minutes, and in a system where he can maximize his athletic tools as a cutter, roll man, and lob threat, he’ll be the ultimate spacing weapon at the four.
Taylor Hendricks is bound to provide value, and he is bound to produce.