What makes the enigmatic Dillon Jones work?
There's no subtlety to the game of Weber State's Dillon Jones. So what happens when (or if) he's forced to scale down in the NBA?
When we look at NBA role players at the college level, they tend to shine offensively to a degree foreign to NBA-exclusive fans. You don’t simply become a star in your role at the highest level of play without being a star in general in the levels below, especially as an older prospect.
Of course, there are developmental swings from first years who were limited for one reason or another in college and flourished in the NBA or the cases of players who were stars in college and went on to star in the NBA. However, for the funkier play styles we see littered throughout college hoops, there are typically one or two skills that will be honed in at the next level that will propel them toward rotational minutes.
Take someone like Payton Pritchard for example. Once a consensus All-American for Oregon, drafted in the top 30 in 2020, turned backup point guard for the Celtics on his second contract with the highest minute-per-game average of his career. Since becoming a pro, Pritchard’s never eclipsed 7.9 points per game or 3.0 assists per game, yet has maintained a spot in the contending Celtics’ rotation with his knockdown shooting and ancillary playmaking capabilities.
Dillon Jones is projected as this type of player that will inevitably scale down when he hits the league, but nobody seems to be quite sure how. Jones will be on the door of 23 years old when his rookie season begins. He’s just six-foot-six playing primarily power forward and doesn’t project as a high-volume shooter from behind the arc.
Despite this, Jones is projected to be drafted in the late-first to early-second come July and ranks in or near the top 50 in the NCAA in points per game (19.3, 40th), rebounds per game (9.9, 20th), and assists per game (4.9, tied-52nd). So what makes him as effective as he’s been and how does he project to scale down at the next level if he even has to at all?
Jones’ role with Weber State is very much on-ball. He’s top 70 in the NCAA in usage percentage at 29.5% and if his production means anything, it’s a number he’s earned.
Jones’ main draw is his creation, which he’s taken a large jump with over the years, increasing his points per game and assists per game in each of the four years of his career. That kind of development on its own is a draw. Going from a rotation piece to the focal point of an offense, and being effective in both cases is the exact kind of player that does scale down well at the next level.
Over the years he’s gone from someone who rarely ever ran the pick and roll to someone who gets to their offense primarily out of it. He’s been quite good as well, registering both volume and efficiency. Jones is utilized as a pick-and-roll ball handler in 69% of Weber State’s offensive possessions with him on the court, where the team scored 0.908 points per possession, ranking in the 59th percentile.
Jones operates the pick-and-roll with a nose for blood, reading his defender’s body position relative to the screen to decide whether to use or deny. His quick first step is excellent for creating advantages when his man guesses wrong and in the event their answer is correct, Jones is strong enough to power through with a meaty shoulder to the chest.
Jones’ scoring arsenal is somewhat mystifying in regards to modern NBA offense. He gets downhill well and converts 59.0% of his shots at the rim, yet only has one dunk on the season. He has solid jump shot mechanics and shoots 36.8% from three in the catch-and-shoot, but shoots less than six threes per 100 possessions. He has a defensive end’s physique but operates with finesse over brutish strength more often than not.
Despite all this, Jones works. He’s productive and efficient as we’ve already mentioned. But the question that continuously begs to be asked is “How?”
Starting at the rim and working our way out, Jones scores in close in a variety of ways. He’s capable of burning players off a closeout, utilizing his combination of strength and speed to bully a mismatch, or even facing or posting up inside the arc.
One of the biggest concerns last season with Jones’ NBA trajectory was his ball handling on his drives. It felt clumsy and loose at times, and he struggled to change directions or angles if his first move couldn’t win.
That couldn’t be further from the case now, with Jones being adept at throwing a variety of moves on a single drive, maintaining composure, and being able to flow into multiple kinds of attacks. He’ll size up with a jab going baseline, then cross and turn into a post-up only to spin over his inside shoulder into a layup. This craft, along with just his general strength and ability to extend around contact at the rim, is how Jones has been a relatively above-average finisher throughout his senior campaign.
When unable to get to the rim though, Jones has leveraged his offensive attack with a variety of mid-range counters he can utilize, practically at will, to continue applying pressure as a scorer inside the arc. On top of the shot versatility, Jones is yet again, relatively efficient, shooting 44.4% on all of his dribble jumpers from inside the arc this season.
His favorite move is the step-back: leaning into his defender on a drive to get their momentum going one way, just to pull the ball back, set his feet, and fire. It’s a move that showcases Jones’ extraordinary dexterity at his size and utilizes his strength alongside it to create the most space possible.
While the mid-range shot has fallen out of favor for NBA teams, there is a track record to behold of players who excel at creating from 15-to-20 feet becoming effective from 23-to-25 feet. Albeit, it’s rare to see those players become the same kind of creators from the outside as they are from the inside; however, turning into an effective catch-and-shoot player on good volume does not seem out of the cards for Jones.
Jones’ three-point shooting as it stands, though, is a completely different story from his mid-range scoring. Jones has taken just 71 threes on the season, making up just 26.9% of his total field goal attempts. His overall three-point percentage isn’t exactly eye-opening either, sitting at 35.2% — about a point and a half behind the NBA’s current three-point average of 36.6%.
All but 10 of Jones’ three-point attempts have come in the catch-and-shoot, where he’s been encouragingly average. It’s not somewhere he’s ever been heavily utilized, but he grades out as good in the catch-and-shoot, ranking in the 61st percentile, and it stands to wonder how he’d perform in a larger off-ball role.
Anything regarding projection is speculation, and not grounded in fact, but Jones’ indicators are relatively good. He shoots 83.8% from the free-throw line on good volume (10.7 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions) and his proficiency in the mid-range is encouraging, it just hasn’t translated to the same degree beyond the arc yet.
Jones has good footwork off the catch, being able to quickly hop or step into his base. He gets the ball to the rim with a strong wrist flick, and an ideal set point, right around his brow, although his arm angle could stand to be closer to 90º allowing him to cut down on the amount of motions and time it takes to get his shot up.
While Jones’ outside shooting is still under development as a complement to his scoring arsenal, his playmaking is something he’s been able to blend better and better year after year.
It’s necessary for on-ball creators at the level of Jones’ to be able to create for others. Scoring on one’s own is fine, but what bends defenses is being able to seamlessly transition between creating shots for oneself and others. Jones’ assists per game total is impressive on its own, playing a de facto point guard role for Weber State, and doing it well, but his passing is much more than just a product of his on-ball repetitions.
Jones does a lot of stuff for his teammates, just as a virtue of having an absurd amount of time on the ball, but it’s his ability to allow the ball to flow through him that makes the difference at the next level. Within Weber State’s offense, he swings the ball fluidly, never lets it linger on his palms, and attacks sparingly with the intent to create something from his first two or three dribbles.
It’s a bit sparing, but there’s some interesting stuff with Jones as a post- and handoff-hub. He sets solid screens, and his broad shoulders allow him to be effective in creating space for his teammates with his frame in handoffs, while his ability to hunt mismatches in the post can create offensive advantages for his teammates around him.
Jones is adept at the technical aspects of passing, rarely ever throwing the ball off-target or with a lack of zip. The speed of his passes specifically stands out, especially on his skip passes where he can be incredibly audacious. He reads the off-ball movement of his teammates well, not just generating assists off of standstill shooters, but finding cutters and shooters streaking off screens, or being able to lob or bounce an outlet in transition.
Generally, at his size, Jones is the complete package as a playmaker, being able to blend his passing on- and off-ball, as well as generally being able to leverage his scoring as a weapon to create passing angles and openings.
The question of how Jones works in the NBA still exists, and it’s one that likely won’t be answered until years into Jones’ professional career. The checklist of strengths and weaknesses is a combination that many just don’t see and there will likely have to be some sort of change to survive in the early opportunities.
He’s a six-foot-six and 235-pound power forward whose primary forms of offense come on-ball, out of the pick and roll, and in isolation. He’s incredibly strong with great dexterity and a solid first step but rarely finds himself with enough lift to get up above the rim. He possesses solid touch, but the shot diet is a bit atypical for modern basketball.
Despite all this, Jones has found success. He’s grown into his strengths and now leans into them heavily. The question of “how will he scale down?” looks to confine him in a way. Oftentimes that question is looking for a predetermined picture of the role player archetypes that flood the NBA’s rotation: stretch bigs, 3&D wings, and rim protectors. None of which Jones is.
However, in a league where every team is always looking to add ball-handling, passing, and other ancillary skills to fill their rotation, there’s no doubt that Jones will find a spot in the NBA and inevitably stick. He’s atypical, but maybe that’s what’s going to work best for him, rather than trying to confine himself to a role that he is not.