What Victor Wembanyama means for the San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs just won the Wembanyama sweepstakes...but what comes next?
The 2023 NBA draft lottery has concluded, which means, in all certainty, we know the destination of french big man, Victor Wembanyama.
The seven-foot-five unicorn has been advertised as the best prospect since LeBron James, if not just the best prospect of all time, and it’s easy to see why. He possesses insane length, with a ridiculous eight-foot wingspan to match his equally ridiculous stature. Arguably even more impressive than his size; however, is his unseen levels of fluidity for his frame, routinely breaking defenders down off of the dribble, getting low and delivering bumps while maintaining his handle, and comfortably rising up to shoot in just about any scenario imaginable.
So, who ended up winning the ultimate prize of the season? The San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs have only ever had two first overall picks in their franchise’s 45 years, selecting David Robinson in 1987 and Tim Duncan in 1997. Both were among the league’s most dominant big men during their time, and ended up taking home multiple Championships together for San Antonio, with Duncan winning three more following Robinson’s retirement.
The Spurs will hope to continue this trend of bringing Championships to San Antonio by selecting yet another supremely talented big man first overall — but what does this mean for San Antonio’s future as well as Victor Wembanyama’s as the two’s destinies are now intertwined?
The young core:
San Antonio has had a number of great draft picks over the last handful of years, starting with the selection of Keldon Johnson back in 2019, whom they selected 29th overall; and Devin Vassell in 2020, whom they selected 11th overall.
The two blossomed for San Antonio last year, taking on a heightened load as shot creators on a talent hungry Spurs roster, that notably lacked high-level playmaking and scoring guards, leaving the point guard duties to their other 2020 selection, Tre Jones, the 41st overall pick.
Keldon Johnson led the Spurs in scoring this past year at 22.0 points per game, and although he didn’t turn in his most efficient season (-3.0% rTS), his utility as a big-bodied wing who can get to the rim, and hit his threes provides immense value in a core that’s otherwise defensive centric.
For the same reason, Devin Vassell’s uptick in offensive creation, both as a scorer and playmaker, was extremely good news for the Spurs. Coming into the league marketed as a ‘3&D’ prospect, Vassell has shown promise of much more, with exponential growth as a shot-creator. In 2022-23, Vassell saw his percentage of two-point shots that were assisted on go from 67.2% the prior year all the way down to 45.6%, seeing career highs in efficiency, all while taking an immense jump in his attempts per game.
Another young asset for the Spurs, marketed initially for his defense, is rising sophomore Jeremy Sochan, a Baylor product known for his ever-changing hair color, one-handed free throws, and positional versatility. At six-foot-nine, Sochan operated as a pseudo-point guard for San Antonio at times, with coach Popovich trusting the young forward’s ability to handle pressure and find the open man. He excelled, his confidence growing as a scorer as the organization put more trust into him for his defense and playmaking.
His fellow first-round draft pick in 2022, Malaki Branham, was another gem, blossoming late in the season. He started 27 of his last 28 games in his rookie campaign, and while the three point range still needs some work, he was a savant in the midrange, leveraging a high release point and great shot balance to get buckets between the paint and the arc.
How does Victor Wembanyama fit?:
The answer to this question is pretty obvious. You build around Victor. It’s the reason why, no matter who got the first overall pick, Brian Windhorst was going to be in France to interview Victor at 2:30 in the morning. No team is passing up on someone as supremely talented and gifted as Wembanyama if they’re lucky enough to get the first overall pick.
But how does the roster around Victor look from day one? As we went over, the Spurs have an extremely talented array of young pieces waiting to play alongside their new French teammate, but who’s getting minutes, who’s starting, and how do player’s roles change with the addition of Victor Wembanyama?
First, we can obviously assume that Victor’s going to be a day one starter, along with Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, but what position Victor plays at initially is a curious situation. He’s stated that he would prefer not to play center, as he expects to be more featured on the perimeter offensively.
The Spurs do have the roster to be able to do this, with Zach Collins — a former top ten pick by the Portland Trail Blazers — emerged for them late into the season, averaging 16.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (55.2% from two, 39.2% from three) in his last 19 games for the Spurs, starting every game for them.
This lineup, with Wembanyama at the four, would allow Victor to roam the court defensively, helping from the weak side, similar to how players like Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. have been utilized. I like to call this role the “free safety four” and you can read more about what that role entails in my article discussing another NBA draft prospect, Taylor Hendricks.
The issue that I think a lot of people are going to look at; however, is the role of Jeremy Sochan, who’s most natural position is power forward. Having Victor and Collins at the bigs prevents him from playing that, while neither Vassell or Johnson are suited for point guard duties, pushing Sochan to the bench.
I think this could actually be a good thing for Sochan, in a second unit that severely lacks playmaking talent. He could play the role of a pseudo-point guard, handling the ball, and running actions alongside the Spurs array of shooters off the bench.
Overall though, playmaking is still the biggest hole on the roster, and they lack a point guard capable of moving the needle. Tre Jones is a good enough game manager who takes care of the ball and scores with the looks the defense gives him, but his potential to move the needle, like the young guards on rebuilding teams, is lacking.
Point guard is likely the number one change the Spurs will be looking to make this off-season, after they officially sign Victor Wembanyama, and seeing as we’re not even in the off-season yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the plan there is. However, if I were to make a bet, I’d take one on them bringing in a guard via trade or free agency once they’re allowed to.
It’s hard to find somewhere where Victor doesn’t “fit” this roster, though, and I think he lucked into one of the most well-made rosters for his arrival. Not to mention, the Spurs franchise has pedigree, and Victor’s name surely will bring them far more attention both from media and free agents in the coming years.
Expectations and conclusions:
As far as setting expectations for the 2023-24 San Antonio Spurs goes, it’s a tricky game. Their ceiling and floor are both marginally raised with the almost-certain acquisition of Victor Wembanyama, but we truly won’t know what to anticipate from them until the off-season fully roles around.
Victor himself said to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, following the lottery, “I’m trying to win a ring ASAP, so be ready.” This is an organization who went from first overall pick to 22 consecutive playoff appearances after all. Winning is part of Spurs culture, and it seems their likely selection at number one this Summer is ready to embrace that.
The way the roster currently looks for the Spurs, I think they’re bound to be a scrappy, competitive, and above all else, talented team that is going to steal some wins from “better” teams in the regular season, but in all likelihood, will end up falling short of the playoffs themselves. The West was a bloodbath this year, and it’s going to be difficult for any unexperienced team to break through into that top-8-to-10 range to even manage a play-in bid.
They do, however, have the cap space and assets to make some moves in a more competitive direction. According to Spotrac, the Spurs practical cap space for the 2023-24 season sits at $43,598,849 — more than enough to bring in some free agents, or make some moves in the trade market.
Overall though, the one conclusion we can definitively come to is that the San Antonio Spurs just had their future absolutely overhauled last night. Already harboring an array of talented young players, they finally found that special “one” to step into a centerpiece role, with their inevitable selection of Victor Wembanyama, and every basketball fan should be looking forward to watching how this team, and Wembanyama himself, performs this upcoming season.