When does Summer League actually matter?
The 2024 NBA Summer League is over, and a bevy of takes and opinions have come with it. Do any of them actually matter?
Summer League is always a fun litmus test for those with an online voice. Every shot, turnover and defensive mistake is up for scrutiny as highly-touted rookies and potential breakout sophomores start the newest stretch of their basketball journey.
However, time and time again we’ve seen that Summer League can be deceptive. In 2018, we saw likely the most famous case of this with Trae Young. The now three-time All-Star and one-time All-NBA selectee earned some early doubters after a seven-game stretch in which he shot 30-of-99 from the field and 15-of-55 from three. While we have yet to see how his career plays out, second-overall pick Alex Sarr has seen a similar fate thus far after scoring just 22 points on 9-of-47 shooting.
The inverse can also be true. Plenty of NBA burnouts have been standouts in Las Vegas, even winning MVP or garnering an All-Summer League Team selection. The 29-year-old Xavier Moon was a standout in the 2023 Summer League, averaging 19.6 points per game as well as 4.6 assists and 2.2 steals, earning a Second Team selection following the tournament’s close. Since then, Moon has played just 139 NBA regular season minutes and zero NBA postseason minutes.
So, does Summer League even matter? What are we allowed to take away from it that holds real substance? Clearly, stats don’t matter (to a degree) but is it as nuanced as combing through the hours of film to try and form a valid opinion?
In my opinion, Summer League just isn’t worth stressing over. In the grand scheme of things, all it allows us to look at is a player in a new context, typically in an expanded role against better players. Summer League can only confirm (TO A DEGREE) what we as scouts have learned from hours of study during the draft cycle, but it should never disprove those assertions. Additionally, with the use of the term “Summer League” as the confirmer, I am not referring to statistics recorded during the tournament, only the film.
In scouting, a sample matters more than any one thing. Any amount of film or statistical evidence can be dissected, of course, but the larger the sample the less margin of error. Any player’s career or future looks a lot more grandiose/underwhelming if looked at through the lens of their best or worst stretch of seven to ten games.
That is exactly what a large portion of fans and outlets alike attempt to do with Summer League. We throw out the textbook and replace it with the spark notes, written from the view of a tilted frame.
So, why should we hold out the belief that Sarr has All-Star potential for the Wizards, while we reason that this year’s Summer League leading scorer, Jordan Miller, probably won’t play for the Clippers this upcoming season?
The same reasons why Sarr went second overall and Miller went 48th just a year prior. In the isolated sample of Summer League, where we remove all added context from pre-NBA and NBA seasons, Miller looks like the far better player.
However, when we add in the context, and delve deeper than the stats, we can start to peel back the reasonings behind why each player was drafted where they were and have the expectations they do.
Why was Sarr in the Summer League? He’s not fighting for a roster spot. He’s not a project player who won’t get reps in the regular season. If anything, Sarr is more likely to start the vast majority of his rookie season.
As with most lottery rookies, Sarr was being asked to play through the mistakes. The Wizards know who they drafted in Sarr. Once they knew where they were going to be among the rest of the teams in the league, they likely started to dive deep into Sarr and his fellow top prospects. They understand what he brings to the table and what he doesn’t.
So, Sarr played through the mistakes. He unequivocally made more bad plays than good. He averaged more combined fouls and turnovers (6.5) than he did points per game (5.5), and while I’m certain there were things the Wizards coaching and management didn’t like, I’m equally as sure they were happy to let him continue through it all, relishing in the positives and taking note of the negatives.
With rookies, especially those who are guaranteed a spot, you’re looking for something out of the ordinary. You know what they bring, and if you are a good enough evaluator, you know where their shortcomings, questions and areas for growth lie too.
The opposite can be true for a different type of player too. Let’s look at this year’s Summer League MVP, Josh Christopher, who had none of the security and only questions to answer.
Once a five-star recruit, Christopher was far from an unknown coming into the NBA. Although he underwhelmed on a wishy-washy Arizona State team, Christopher maintained first-round stock, where he was selected 24th overall by the Rockets three years ago. He was the fourth and final first-round pick by Houston, who had drafted Jalen Green and Usman Garuba while trading for Alperen Sengun between the two selections.
What this meant for Christopher is that he was fighting among his peers for chunks of minutes. This past tournament, Christopher was genuinely fighting for a roster spot. Heat legend Udonis Haslem made it known that Christopher had previously reached out to him to try and get a spot on the Heat, and eventually found his way onto Miami’s G-League affiliate, the Sioux Fall Skyforce where he played well enough to earn a Summer League roster spot.
While Sarr was allowed to play through mistakes, Christopher couldn’t make any. He had a rough start in the California Classic but stepped into another gear when the Heat hit Vegas. As Miami roared to a Summer League championship, Christopher was crowned MVP, averaging 19.3 points on 72.0% true shooting in six Vegas appearances.
Christopher wasn’t spoon-fed touches. He earned them by making the most of what he had, eventually forcing his way into the starting lineup with the Heat’s decision to pull standout sophomore Jaime Jaquez Jr., paving the way for Christopher to the touches and shots he had earned.
The masterful performance of Christopher forced the Heat to decide between him and rookie guard Zyon Pullin. The Heat had chosen Pullin more deliberately than Christopher for Summer League. As an undrafted free agent, the Heat likely had every intention in the world to give Pullin the two-way spot, but Christopher forced their hand and as such, Pullin was cut and Christopher was guaranteed.
the dichotomy between Sarr and Christopher illustrates what Summer League is for. It is not a make-or-break mechanism for rookies, and it is not a guaranteed opportunity to show out for the older prospects in the ranks.
Summer League is a tool, but should not be valued over the much larger samples we have on rookies coming into the NBA. Statistics are a tool, but in Summer League, they require much more nuance and backing from film to be used precisely.
To tie it into some words of wisdom from Mavericks assistant and Summer League head coach Jared Dudley, “There will be some 25-point scorers here at Summer League that will not play in the NBA next year. There will be some guys who average 5 or 6 that will.”
Summer League has always been more for the teams and the players rather than for analysts and fans to opine about. I mean Wemby was slandered after a mid SL game for gods sake and he has clearly met and exceeded expectations.